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So it begins again, at last. And what do I confront with the first batter of the first game of the 1998 season? There, on ESPN, Orioles vs. Royals, it's Johnny Damon hitting against Mike Mussina, both members of the Cities! So I rooted for Damon, who needs the confidence builder, but instead Mussina blew him away on 3 pitches. I can live with that, too.
Early roster confusion. Did you receive my e-mail of the rosters file? If not, let me know. It should be in the stat service by Friday at the latest. Meanwhile, at the last minute, several changes occurred to major league rosters, which affected several GoodIV League teams, but the only one who contacted me was the Lippers, seeking to replace traded farmhand Sean Casey with Billy Ashley. The Kings, however, appear not to have noticed the loss of the much-anticipated VanLandingham - Machado battery, both to the minors, as well as Doc Gooden's placement on the DL. Ditto the Hammerin' Eggerts with Jeff Conine and Damon Berryhill.
Fortunately, nobody made the mistake of thinking I'd let them pick up Dave Burba last night, even as an injury replacement (technically, Ashley isn't available until next Sunday, either; neither one was available at Draft time). The Burba sweepstakes is now officially on for Sunday night. All other moves may be made at that time, too. The phone number is the same, except for the area code: 781-477-9356. Or, you can e-mail moves at DNT@DNTownsend.com.
Are you sure you want to know? Okay, evaluations and predictions, 1998. The first thing I notice is that I may be wrong about the prospect that pitching will improve this year (see Baseball Journal). Practically everyone in the league seems to have a lousy pitching staff, with only a couple of clear exceptions. As with major league baseball, I think pitching will be the key to success this year, as there are so many good hitters out there, it's easy to pick them up. But the question of pitching, especially starting pitching, seems more dicey than ever. My own theory was to go with young, up-and-comers (sophomores, not rookies). Others chose to take a chance on comebacks by veterans (Drabek, Navarro, Belcher, McDowell, etc.). Maybe a combination of both strategies, carefully selected, will work. But the saga of pitching will be the story of this season, in my opinion.
The Right Staff. That said, who came out on top with the best pitching staffs in the Good IV League? For starters alone, it's a no-brainer, as the traditional No-Save Mud Hens truly overloaded this year on studs (Hentgen, Pedro, Pettitte, Alvarez, plus Wakefield, Mendoza). But without a closer, they can't be annointed the best overall staff. For relievers, we need look no further than the traditional No-Win Jay Jays, who began with three cheap closers (Aguilera, Rivera, Fetters), and still bought Slocumb. But their only starters are guys like Guzman, Witt, and Frankie Rodriguez.
I judge the best overall staff to be that of the Alberta Lippers. They begin with Randy Johnson, and add Moyer, Wright, Irabu, and Rosado, plus Ogea when he's back, along with Cloude and Drabek, who are #4 starters on the Mariners and Orioles, respectively. That makes 7 starters from the four best teams in the league (Seattle, Cleveland, New York, Baltimore), which equals a chance for a lot of wins, maybe even up there with the Mud Hens. On top of that, they have both Montgomery and Mesa, for a respectable chance at 2nd or 3rd place in Saves.
The second strongest staff for overall balance belongs to the Pets. Although there are no stud starters, they have a good corps of reliable quality pitchers (Key, Burkett, Finley, Erickson, Oliver), and they have two of the elite closers in Wetteland and Roberto Hernandez. All of the rest of us have a combination of two or three high quality starters or closers, along with a wish and a prayer for our $1 gambles.
The Hit Parade. On the other side of the ledger, we're not exactly all equal. You can evaluate hitting according to subcategories, too: speed vs. power, infielders vs. outfielders, studs vs. complete lineups. This year, I'll just look at the big picture: who's got the best hitting, period?
The number one answer is another no-brainer: the Kings spent all their money on a Murderers' Row (sorry, Larry) early in the draft, and it's a bit staggering to survey their lineup: Thomas, Ramirez, Garciaparra, Knoblauch, Segui, Greer, plus some quite solid #8 and #9 hitters like Baines, O'Leary, Hollins, et al. Good thing they don't have any pitching, or the season would be over already.
So who's second? Well, I don't want to seem biased or anything. Actually, yes I do. The Cities have 3 lead-off hitters (Erstad, Stewart, Damon), 4 middle-of-the-lineup sluggers (Thome, Rodriguez, Salmon, Green), plus Derek Jeter: that's 8 potential All-Stars, almost all of whom are multi-dimensional hitters (speed + power, power + OBP, etc.), all in or entering their prime. Throw in two more starters in Jason McDonald and Dave Martinez, plus part-timers with a lot of upside (Hammonds, Posada, Varitek), and this is, I think, my most well-rounded offense ever.
Third best offense is a tie between the Mountain Men and the Boomers. Both have superb outfields, which are strangely parallel: The MM bring Lofton, Edmonds, and O'Neill, plus Luis Gonzalez. The Boomers counter with Hunter, Buhner, and Bernie Williams, plus McCracken. At the corners, they're comparable, too: the MM have the two Clarks (Tony, Will), while the Boomers have Giambi and Fryman. DH and Utility: Chili Davis + Molitor vs. Canseco + Boggs. The MM also have Speizio at 2B and Dan Wilson behind the plate, while the Boomers have Ripken and Dunston. Very similar, strong offenses.
The Bottom Line. In truth, this seems to be one of the hardest GIV Leagues to call. You can make a case for almost any team to be pretty good or pretty lousy. Nevertheless, I have conducted in-depth research, and here's how it will all shake out, at least based upon the post-Draft rosters. Any deviation from these predictions will be entirely due to in-season trades, pickups, injuries, and luck. Take it to the bank.
1. Cities. Back on top, after a short rebuilding season. The exceptional offense is matched by two Cy Young candidates on the mound (Clemens, Mussina). The key will be the emergence of at least 2 front-line starters from among Colon, Saunders, Haynes, Rusch, and Eyre: all are highly touted, with at least half a season of major league experience. Then, I need to trade one for a closer. (Ante up now, boys: a year from now, you'll be drooling to have Tony Saunders for a buck.)
2. Jay Jays. Defying conventional wisdom, and emotional preference, the once-champion Jay Jays look like a serious contender again. Can they really go to (near) the top with a patchwork starting staff of Guzman, Witt, Helling, Moehler, Bere, and Rodriguez? Not if those guys live down to their worst seasons, but if they live up to their best? Quite possibly. The offense is, as usual, a bunch of old DH types, but we're talking about Edgar Martinez, Juan Gonzalez, Berroa, Palmeiro, Carter, Henderson, Sorrento. They've also got Valentin and Ordonez, and a nice catching tandem of Steinbach and Girardi. I'm not so sure about 9 bucks for the Devil Rays DP combination (Cairo-Stocker), but given the flaws in most other teams, these guys could make 2nd place even with only the one Win point.
3. Alberta Lippers. I've told you how much the pitching staff impresses me. The offense doesn't blow you away, but it's pretty darn good. Albert Belle and Dave Justice are the cornerstones, and the only real superstars, but just about every other position is filled with a hitter of potential high quality: Nixon, Palmer, Hill, Morris, Easley, Davis. I think both Brosius and Blowers are realistic comeback candidates, and I really love Mike Cameron. Then you throw Cordero into the mix (somebody had to swallow his ethics), and there's enough to be in the top 5 in hitting, and combine with the strong pitching for a solid third place finish.
4. Mountain Men. Equal to the Boomers in hitting, they have the edge in pitching, due to a collection of semi-closers (Benitez, Timlin, Jackson, Escobar), who should run up some Save points and keep the ERA/Ratio low. Radke is the only stud starter, but Wells and Dickson are serviceable, and they hope Milton will develop quickly.
5. Boomers. Their offense, as discussed above, is among the best; their only weakness is catcher, which is true of just about everyone. For pitchers, they contribute David Cone, Ken Hill, Tewksbury and Candiotti, but no real closers. They'd love Brian Rose (and Robinson Checo) to come through in their rookie seasons, but rookie pitchers are rookie pitchers.
6. Kings. At least 35 points on offense, barring a couple of big trades for pitching, but they look to be last in Wins, ERA, and Ratio, unless they get real lucky. This will be a fun team to root for, as it's full of good guy superstars, but Paul will have to give up at least one of his studs for a front-line pitcher if he wants a shot at the serious money.
7. Mud Hens. See Kings, above. If ever a trade was begging to be made, it is between the Kings and the Mud Hens. The MHs have all the starting pitching in the world, but the best hitter they purchased in the Draft was B.J. Surhoff -- Ouch. Granted, they kept guys like Ventura, Tino, Jose Cruz, I-Rod. I see a Pettitte-for-Ramirez type of deal by about May 1, or at least Wakefield-for-O'Leary. But would it be enough, especially without a closer again? Time will tell, but you can be sure Trader Rowe and Charlie won't end up with the team they started with.
8. Pets. The pitching is quality, as I mentioned, but there is so little offense here. The biggest sluggers are Fred McGriff and Cecil Fielder: not exactly in their prime, but miles better than Mack, Sierra, and Roberto Kelly. Other than Robbie Alomar, there are no real stars in the lineup. If Saberhagen comes back and kids like Greene, Myers, Cruz, and Caruso develop fast (and get healthy), they could move up.
9. Hammerin' Eggerts. They scored some of the best bargains in the Draft, such as Vaughn at $34 and Eckersley at $15. Yet somehow they came out with what seems like a very thin team, overall. A whole bunch of guys like Elster, Conine (injured), Roberts, Merced, Strawberry, Sele, Rogers, Worrell, and the like, don't generate a lot of oohs and aahs. Sure, there's Durham and Brady Anderson, plus Nagy, Percival, and Fassero when he comes back. If Todd Walker performs as advertised (instead of like last year), Navarro comes back, Nagy turns it back up, etc., etc., there's potential here. But that's a lot of Ifs. It shows the perils of entering the Draft with only 2 keepers.
10. Skid Rowes. Is it possible? From first to worst in a single season? When we're talking about the all-time champion of the Good IV League? It sure seems so. I know, Larry left $7 on the table last year and still won. But this year he left $8, and started with a much weaker core of keepers. Yes, Griffey is back, and Grieve is the next A-Rod, or something like that. I thought Sandy Alomar was a steal at $17. But there's really no other standouts on the offense (Garret Anderson? Reggie Jefferson? Joe Randa?) Decent hitters in a year when there were 15 megastars (led by Griffey) available. Put it another way, for the $26 he paid for Anderson, plus the $8 left over, he could have had Mo Vaughn. Then there's the pitching staff, anchored by Justin Thompson and Matt Karchner, and then filled with a bunch of maybes after that (McDowell, Baldwin, Arrojo, Watson, Carpenter, Hawkins). The challenge is on to make a contender out of this ragtag bunch, and it will be fun to watch the Master try.
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Copyright 1997 David N. Townsend