The Good IV League
On-Line

(Click here for
The Standings and Stats)

League Report 11.02                                                     April 26, 1999

Fortunes Told, Cheap!

Time once again for my eerily accurate analyses the likely prospects for the good, bad, and ugly teams in the 1999 Good IV League season. I've got to get on with this before half the league gets injured and none of our rosters resembles what it was on Opening Day. This year I'm initially looking at the rosters not by position, but in terms of their relative strength in the actual categories, roughly defined, that win points in this league. Then I'll put it together for the league as a whole.

I'm grouping hitter characteristics into three main areas: Power, Scoring, and Depth. The Power category implies hitters that give you both Total Bases and RBI, and the Scoring category covers guys who get on base, steal, and come around to score. Obviously some guys help you in both ways. Depth asks the question: who has the best worst hitters (get it?), and contributes to a team's potential in all three cumulative stats.

For pitchers, I'm also looking at three groups: Star quality (for starters), Bullpen, and Depth. The first emphasizes performance in the ERA and ratio categories by top level starters, who will be called on to anchor a staff; the second should correlate with Saves, but also ERA and ratio, and Depth measures both the ability to avoid blowouts in the ratio categories, and likely strength in Wins. Hey, it's not an exact science, but at least it different.

So here we go:

Power:

1. Kings. Again this year, this team has managed a lineup good enough to intimidate Walter Johnson. The early setback to Garciaparra has been offset by a strong comeback from Thomas, with Ramirez and Thome picking up where they left off last year. That's four serious MVP candidates, of the 40+ HR, 120+ RBI variety, plus O'Leary, Lawton, Mabry, and quite a supporting cast.

2. Skid Rowes. Start with a "Grrrowl" for Griffey, Grieve, and Greer, and add some Salmon. The kids Koskie and Chavez also look good, and throw in Brady Anderson, Valentin, and the apparently mature (at last) Alex Gonzalez, and this is a potent lineup.

3. (tie) Jay Jays. The old guys -- Buhner, Edgar Martinez, O'Neill, McGriff, Palmeiro -- can still crank it, and this year there's a younger twist to this franchise, led by Encarnacion and Ordonez, and soon Jeremy (the Younger) Giambi.

(tie) Cities Coming out of the draft, I had the Cities 2nd in this category, but the loss of Alex Rodriguez unil June knocks them down quite a bit. Still, with Juan Gone combining with Jeter, Erstad, Green, and Jason (the Elder) Giambi, this team should have as much punch as almost anyone.

Scoring:

1. Mud Hens. Not usually thought of as a team built on speed, the Hens have that look this year. Carryovers from the championship season include Goodwin, Vizquel, and Lewis, and they're joined by leadoff/speedster types Winn and Ryan Christianson, plus #2 hitter Jefferies.

2. Boomers. Close behind, figuratively speaking, are the Boomers, who belie their name by emphasizing speed (and OBP) in Hunter, McCracken, Bernie Williams, Edmonds, and Frye, et al.

3. Hammerin' Eggerts. Leading leadoff stars Lofton and Durham are the HamEggs' main credentials for this category, joined by .400 OBP types such as Vaughn, Justice, and Walker.

Hitting Depth:

1. Mud Hens The worst 3 hitters on the Mud Hens are Charles Johnson, Scott Spiezio, and maybe Ryan Christianson: all starters, all potentially very good. This team will win Total Bases in a breeze.

2. Hammerin' Eggerts. They already dumped Berroa in favor of Chad Allen, who looks like he'll play every day. Their other non-regulars are Huskey and Conine, who will contribute a great deal over the course of the season.

3. Boomers. The only major holes are Daubach, now Gates, plus Kreuter at backup catcher. Tony Fernandez is looking like his old self, and may keep the job all year.

Pitching Stars

1. Cities. An easy, if biased, call. Mussina and Pettitte are top Cy Young candidates, and Colon is an All Star, too.

2. Mountain Men. They've got Clemens and Wells at the top, but are iffy after that. They could move up, however, if Mendoza continues to pitch like a superstar, and/or Portugal keeps it going all year.

3. Mud Hens. Pedro is the equal of anyone, and Saberhagen has truly come back to be a strong #2. If Rosado has regained his form, they've got a solid, if not overwhelming, top of the rotation.

Bullpen:

1. Jay Jays. No surprise here, the last year of Mariano Rivera's captivity. Their traditional dominance in this category could be in jeopardy if Aguilera gets traded and Person fails to seize the job in Toronto.

2. Hammerin' Eggerts . Percival is one of the best, and Taylor keeps hanging in there in Oakland. And Derek Lowe and Paniagua are two of the best bets at the Setup position.

3. Skid Rowes In a weak year for closers, the Skids have Timlin and Howry, who have the job for the moment, but their overall pen edges out the Pets' (Wetteland, R. Hernandez) due to its second line talent of Crabtree, Mecir, Karsay, and Plesac.

Pitching Depth

1. Cities. You shortsighted owners may not buy this, based on the early struggles of Ponson, Sparks, and Saunders, but this team has quality starters from at least 1-5, and arguably 1-8, enough to take the Wins category by a wide margin.

2. Hammerin' Eggerts. Give the Hammies their due, they're not overloaded with superstars, but there are no bums on this staff, either. They're led by Radke, Rogers, and Sele, and guys like Clark and Snyder are capable of doing good things, as is the aforementioned bullpen.

3. Lippers. Ditto the Lippers, whose top starters Cone and Wright could be excellent, and are well supported by Burkett, Guzman, and presumably Hamilton when he's healthy. Then there's Freddy Garcia, who looks like a find. But that 10th pitcher slot may haunt them all year if they insist on sticking with more Mariners (Hinchcliffe, Cloude)

The Bottom Line.  My overall observation in just looking at this year's rosters is that this could be a very balanced season, for a change. No teams stand out as really dominating the field, or excessively putrid. To be candid, I changed my rankings of several teams more than once before arriving at the order below. Don't make the mistake of looking at the first two weeks and thinking they mean too much. The Boomers started out looking like they'd be back in the cellar again, only to come on like a juggernaut in week 2. There have been so many injuries to key players, some minor, some potentially worse, that the early season equation is all messed up. So the premonitions described below mostly try to ignore the first two weeks' developments, and look at the long-term picture, based on the rosters coming out of the draft. It could be a long, fun race.

1. Cities: This is a sneaky team, that looks, perhaps, disorganized at first glance, and has certainly seen some rough going in the early stages. But assuming they get 2/3 of a season out of A-Rod, they are in as good a position as any to be in the money at the end. It starts with the pitching, as indicated above; no team in the league has as good a 1-2-3, and #4 (Baldwin) is the Ace of the White Sox. The question mark is the hitting, beyond the studs Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Jeter, Erstad, and Green. The keys to this team may be Giambi and Konerko: if they step it up, this offense can survive a waiting game for the likes of Sexson, Kapler, and Pickering to become full-time contributors. Then, if Trombley makes his anticipated move to Closer, this will be an all-around winning combination by August. Just you wait.

2. Hammerin' Eggerts: This is a team with only a few big names, the biggest of which (Vaughn) has yet to play. What they have most in their favor is that elusive Balance: no major holes, and prospective strengths in every position. They need to weather the injuries (Justice, Hatteburg), and hope that some gambles like Mienteciewicz and Paniagua pay off. But in a balanced season, the most balanced team may not finish first in a single category, and still could challenge for the title.

3. Mud Hens: This is actually a somewhat imbalanced team, but with the best all-around offense in the league. I've pointed out their Scoring strength and overall depth, and they have boppers like Tony Clark and Delgado and Segui to boot. However, they won't challenge for the lead in Wins this year, with only four starters, and they'll be saveless again, but their middle relief corps (Hasegawa, Shuey, Stanton, et al.) will help keep them at the top of ERA and ratio. That should be enough to stay in the race all season. Actually, to tell the truth, I wanted to rate this team lower, because the pitching staff is so questionable, but then I remembered that every time I pick these guys last they win the league. So this time I'm looking for the reverse effect.

4. Mountain Men: Off to a very fast start, are the MM real or an illusion? It partly depends on whether you believe Troy Glaus is the MVP candidate he's appeared so far; don't be too sure he's not. This team does have serious holes in its offense (like the whole outfield), however, and has a shaky bullpen (Mesa, Simas) to say the least. Their fortunes depend upon the young guys like Glaus and also Hinch, Tejada, Mendoza, and Milton climbing rapidly to the next level.

5. Skid Rowes: This team also is depending heavily upon kids (The S-Kids!), and they're pretty good-looking kids. But are they all (Chavez, Febles, Beltran, Koskie, Carpenter, Howry) ready to play in the big leagues at the same time? Most of them play for teams like Kansas City and Minnesota and the White Sox, so they're probably over their heads, and don't be surprised if they struggle (that's baseball speak for "suck") for a while. On the other hand, there's some prime candidates for midseason trades to dumpsters here, too.

6. Kings: Will the magic be there again this year? Most of the devastating lineup returns, so you know they'll be near the top in offense. For pitching, there are the same questions that existed last season, compounded now by Gordon's injury. Orlando Hernandez, Finley, and Sirotka could be the anchors of a contending staff to support the Thomases, Ramirezes and Garciaparras on this team (don't you hate it when sportswriters use that idiom? Damn it, there's only one of each!) But somehow a line of seven $1 pitchers raises lingering doubts, regardless.

7. Baby Boomers: Stop me if you've heard this before. The Boomers have a solid looking offense (even with the loss of Edmonds), but woeful pitching. Nagy, Burba, Hill, and Blair sound more like Baby talk than a starting rotation. Maybe if Ramon Martinez comes back strong in July he'll give the staff a boost. Otherwise they may have to trade a hitter to gain some respectability in the pitching stats, and that sounds like a recipe for 7th place. (By the way, which was the real steal of the draft, Ivan Rodriguez for $25 or Tony Fernandez for a buck?)

8. Lippers: It's hard to peg this team. It seems to have more "what if" possibilities than any other. Belle, Canseco, and Palmer might hit 140 homers among them, but several other hitters -- Norton, Cordova, Velarde, Alomar -- are giant question marks. The pitching could be excellent behind Cone, Wright, and Guzman, but each of those guys has an above-average risk of going in the tank, too. On balance, my guess is that the what-ifs are more likely to fall in the wrong direction.

9. Jay Jays: Here's the scenario: They get off to a fast start, with their offense clicking on all cylinders, and the pitching numbers out of the bullpen looking strong. By midseason, however, the old guys start showing their age, going on the DL and losing playing time. Aguilera gets traded to the NL. In a panic, the Jays trade Stewart, Encarnacion, and Escobar to the Cities for Juan Gonzalez, who promptly breaks his leg. Jay Jays drop out of contention, Cities win the league. You read it here first.

10. Pets: I can't be sure that I'm not overly influenced by the early returns here. Still, when the team owner panics in the first week and dumps a guy like Candiotti, you have to question his faith in his own roster. The problem is that the Pets blew their whole wad on pitching, and wound up with guys like Alvarez (DL), Erickson (shell shocked), Fassero (= "Fast" becoming a "Zero"), and Iritating Boo. The best pitcher on this team may be Jeff Weaver, and he was drafted by proxy. Meanwhile their top priced hitters are Jeffs Abbott and King, soon to be confused with Abbott and Costello . . . Wait 'til next Millennium.

Well, there it is.  When you've stopped laughing, I'd be interested in any feedback or contrary opinions you might like to submit.  Good luck to all. 

DT


Your Words Here!

Anyone (in the Good IV League, preferably) interested in contributing to this Site should send your comments, reactions, challenges, and assorted drivel to me at DNT@DNTownsend.com. I'll reprint just about everything, if it's remotely comprehensible (and doesn't take up too much space), and I'll probably add my own responses, which is the privilege of the Editor.


Delve into the Past!

Be sure to visit The Good IV League Archives!  Selected excerpts from previous League Reports, all the way back to the Beginning, including the Origin of the League, past Winners and Losers, and lots of trivia of value only to hopeless obsessives like ourselves.


Useful Baseball Links:

(If anybody has any more favorite sites they'd like to have listed here for easy linking, let me know.)

AllStar Stats: THE GOOD IV LEAGUE Home Page


If this isn't enough of a fix for you guys, also check out:

DT's Baseball Journal
(
lots of other baseball stuff, past and present)

and

David N. Townsend: The Site

  

(c) 1997-98 David N. Townsend