Sluggers or Slugs? Here's what you want to know, if you're me, at this stage of the season. We've made it through about 16 games, or 10% of the schedule: is the hitting binge continuing? Is anyone going to break Maris's record? Are we going to see another two dozen 30+ homer seasons? Or has the phenomenon peaked, and are we settling into a more normal season (to be jolted back to absurdity during expansion next year)?
Well, somebody else is going to write the article showing total homers and runs scored at this point last season versus this season. I predict Baseball Weekly will provide that analysis either this week or next week. My method focuses only on the elite hitters, the ones who seem to have been at the forefront of the carnage the past couple of seasons. It certainly seems as if there's been less slugging overall so far this year, with a lot more low-scoring, well pitched games, and fewer 8-HR bashes. Let's look at how the top 10 sluggers (last year) in the American League are doing, taking their first +/-16 games, and adding them together to get a full season picture, compared with their averages for last year:
| Player | G |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
G |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
| Griffey | 17 |
65 |
9 |
21 |
140 |
565 |
49 |
140 |
| Belle | 17 |
71 |
2 |
10 |
158 |
602 |
48 |
148 |
| Vaughn | 16 |
59 |
3 |
8 |
161 |
635 |
44 |
143 |
| Thomas | 17 |
63 |
0 |
8 |
141 |
527 |
40 |
134 |
| McGwire | 18 |
59 |
6 |
17 |
130 |
423 |
52 |
113 |
| B. Anderson | 14 |
50 |
2 |
8 |
149 |
579 |
50 |
110 |
| Buhner | 18 |
62 |
3 |
12 |
150 |
564 |
44 |
138 |
| Palmeiro | 14 |
57 |
4 |
14 |
162 |
626 |
39 |
142 |
| Fielder | 18 |
73 |
0 |
9 |
160 |
591 |
39 |
117 |
| T. Clark/ J. Gonzalez* |
19 |
74 |
7 |
22 |
134 |
541 |
47 |
144 |
| Totals/Avg. | 168 |
633 |
36 |
129 |
149 |
563 |
45 |
133 |
*(I used Clark's 1997 to compare with Gonzalez's >96)
So, by this standard, looking at the top sluggers in the league, power performance is way down so far this season. In 70 more at-bats than their average for last year, the group has 9 fewer homers and 4 fewer RBIs. The notable slow starts have been Belle, Thomas, and Fielder, but Anderson has forsaken homers in a quest to hit .400, Vaughn only has 8 RBI, and Buhner is well off last year's pace as well. Of course, a couple of new guys besides Clark have stepped up to the plate, including Sandy Alomar and Tino Martinez, and also the weather's been nutty. But the early indications, 1/10 of the way into the 1997 season, are that the Madness may have been slowed, if not stopped.
Predictions, now. Because it's fun and better than working, I want to offer some actual predictions about the Real baseball world this time, at least in the American League, since I don't know much of anything about the NL. Not projections, but lay-it-on-the-line forecasts of who's going to win what this season. The kind you can look back and compare, if you're right, and ignore if you're wrong. Responses encouraged.
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays. The name of the game is pitching, and nobody has it like this team, including an under-rated bullpen to complement the Cy-caliber starting staff. We'll see if the next generation of over-hyped Blue Jays prospects (Green, Stewart) lives up to its potential in time.
2. Baltimore Orioles. They were supposed to win last year, the Yankees were supposed to win the year before: this division might be on time-delay. With all due respect to Seattle, this could turn out to be baseball's best lineup. But they have too many of those pitchers with K's in their names (Kamieniecki, Boskie, Erickson); only Key is worthy of the letter.
3. New York Yankees. Which was the dumber free agent loss, Clemens or Wetteland? Losing Wetteland equals 2 losses, and the impact is already very apparent. Suddenly this team is very average. Their best hitter is Tino, who's no more than the 6th best First Baseman in the league. Cone is great if healthy, and Pettite is fine, but Wells is no Key, and Rogers ain't worth $5-mil.
4. Boston Red Sox. Don't let some early season good luck against Seattle and Cleveland fool you. This team has a mediocre (if eventually promising) pitching staff, especially in the bullpen, and a patchwork outfield, with no catching and weak fielding. They won the division in '95, and had the best record in baseball in the second half of '96, but Duke decided they needed to "rebuild", so dumped the manager, best pitcher, 2nd best hitter, and didn't sign anyone worth mentioning. He wants us to wait until '98-'99, and so we shall.
5. Detroit Tigers. They have some young pitching coming along, too, and their rebuilding is a year ahead of the Red Sox. Getting rid of Fielder was a great coup, and now they have a chance to move up a notch this year. They will challenge for 4th, if any of their pitchers comes through.
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins. This is obviously going out on a limb, especially with their recent injuries, but I like this team a lot, and have major doubts about the others. If everybody's healthy, they can score runs with anyone. Tewksbury is a good addition to a young staff, and Aguilera back in the bullpen might be a smart move. They've won twice before under Kelly when no one thought they would; if they do it again, he'll be called the Bill Parcells of baseball.
2. Cleveland Indians (Wild Card). They are a shadow of their former selves, as the starting pitching gets older and weaker (McDowell, Hershiser), the kids (Colon, Lopez) aren't ready, and the bullpen is in disarray. They've attempted to completely reshuffle the lineup, which is still potent, but all those NL guys will have to adjust to a new league, and hit to their potential merely to approach the previous Indians' scoring. No more sure thing.
3. Milwaukee Brewers. They were completely unsung last year, but their core of Cirillo, Nilsson, Jaha, Valentin, and Vina were all exceptional. Now Burnitz may finally have arrived, and if one more of the outfielders can do the same, they'll be a contender. They need to work out a plan for the bullpen, especially since after McDonald and maybe Karl, they have a lot of question marks.
4. Kansas City Royals. The other "rebuilding" movement, getting mixed reviews so far. It's too bad Appier (and Montgomery) won't get a chance to pitch for a winner. They traded away Tucker just as he was ready to blossom, and have been plugging in all these National League refugees, treading water without going anyplace.
5. Chicago White Sox. That's right, last place. When the Red Sox had Rice and Armas back-to-back in the early '80s, do you remember what records they broke? Not homers, not RBIs, but yes, GIDPs. And that's what Thomas and Belle will do this year. The loss of Ventura is much worse than they first realized, and they gambled and lost on replacing Fernandez with Navarro and Drabek. Heads will roll in Chicago this year, as the White Sox seem a worse failure than the Cubs.
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners. No unconventional pick here. Johnson is back and Fassero is good, even though their pitching thins out after that. Griffey is a virtual shoo-in to finally win his MVP, and the rest of the bashers are well documented, Cora and Tinsley notwithstanding. Besides, in this weak division, they should coast to the title.
2. Texas Rangers. They won by default last year, when the Mariners couldn't quite pull off another late-season surge, despite Texas's near collapse. This year, they miss Gonzalez for a month at the beginning, don't have Elster, and Clark is even more fragile. Their bullpen is much improved, so they should hang on to second place, but they are at risk of falling far.
3. California Angels. They may have begun to climb back with the arrival of Dickson and Erstad, but Langston and Finley are on their last legs, so they will probably remain down awhile before they contend again. Percival's health is a vital question, as is Velarde's. They could do some damage, but they'll get hurt by the shrapnel, too.
4. Oakland Athletics. Even more than Detroit, they have chosen to ignore the need for pitching in the major leagues. Karsay and Prieto might be major league starters; none of the rest of their rotation is. Their closer is a 35 year-old minor league veteran. They've got the awesome and brittle McGwire, and a number of other decent quality hitters, but they're really just a mess of a team: an infielder in left field, too many DH's, poor fielding, dubious catching. Reminds me of the Red Sox.
Post-Season: Seattle over Minnesota, Toronto over Cleveland; Toronto over Seattle, and the Rocket gets back to the Series, where he can face Maddux head-to-head in Games 1, 4, and 7.
MVP: Ken Griffey, Jr.; Cy Young: Roger Clemens; Rookie of the Year: Darin Erstad; Manager of the Year: Tom Kelly; Comeback of the Year: Bret Saberhagen (do they really give this award? who won it last year?)
Mo Better Blues. Just a question: I'm all for this retiring Jackie Robinson's number throughout all of baseball idea. As I understand it, they'll actually post his number 42 in every park, alongside the local team's retired numbers, and that will heighten awareness of Jackie's unique role, etc. That's fine. But suppose, just suppose, that Mo Vaughn somehow actually manages to play his whole career in Boston, and remains the superstar, team MVP, and solid citizen that he has been to date. Isn't it possible that the Red Sox organization would want to consider paying him the ultimate tribute, by retiring his number? This gets a bit tricky, because Vaughn is being "allowed" to continue wearing Robinson's #42, which he took in tribute to Jackie in the first place, but it will retire for the Red Sox when Vaughn does. (Also, if Vaughn goes to another team, where the #42 is already "retired", can he still wear it?) So, if Vaughn is great enough to deserve number retirement, how will they reconcile that with the Jackie Robinson tribute? Hmm? Here's another fine mess you've gotten us into, Bud!
And while we're on the subject, isn't it time to start talking about retiring ol' number 21, too? Or is Duquette going to give it to Kerry Lacy or someone?
DT, 4/21/97
Comments? Questions? Impassioned, hyperbolic
overreaction?
Contact me:
Back to Baseball Journal front page
Rotisserie/Fantasy Baseball
The Good IV League
(c) 1997 David N. Townsend