The Good IV League On-Line:
The Archives
Okay, don't have a cow, you'll get your precious Stats soon enough. I swear, you people are just like children. Besides, with the giant Cookie Jar of the Internet now out there, you can pretty much figure out just about everything you ever wanted to know about your team, anyway. Tell the truth, aren't you starting to miss looking at boxscores in the morning paper? Doesn't it lose a little something when you already downloaded all the results on an inning-by-inning basis until 2:00AM the night before?
Anyway, the rosters have now been submitted (as of Friday), and we should have official standings by sometime this coming week. This doesn't, however, excuse those of you who haven't paid yet. Steve the Enforcer will be contacting you soon. For now, enclosed for those who didn't keep good notes is a copy of the post-draft rosters. I haven't updated them for the changes made last Sunday, but those are identified below. Gee, I hope you get this before this Sunday, so you know what moves to make. But most of you saw the Web site notice, which was 90% accurate.
Making contact. I'd like to request some minor changes in how you contact me to make roster moves on Sundays. Since I now have an Office phone in my home, it will be less confusing, and I'll miss fewer messages, if you call that line rather than my home phone. So please make all telephone moves by calling 617-477-9356 before 11:00PM Sunday nights. Also, if you can, don't hesitate to send your moves by e-mail to: DNTownsend@Prodigy.com. I will check this Sunday night as well.
I don't mind the telephone calls, and if I'm around and in the mood to talk baseball, I'll often pick up the phone rather than just take messages. But please don't count on reaching me in person. Too many times people leave messages saying things like, "I haven't got the report in front of me, so I don't know who's available, could you please call me back." That's not my job, nor should I be responsible for contacting you if you forget to replace a player, or don't give me enough names, and so forth. Of course, I do try to be helpful as much as I can, but there are no guarantees.
I'll continue to post moves, in abbreviated form, to the Web Site late on Sunday night. This won't be official, however, as sometimes things get messed up and need to be corrected on Monday. Keep this in mind relative to the data in the on-line reports, too. The official standings remain those as of the end of the week. Mid-week standings and statistics may reflect incorrect or incomplete roster moves, so don't always trust them. And please don't call in hysterics if the on-line service doesn't show your new player on your roster by 8:00 AM Monday morning. I just know that this new technology is going to cause new headaches.
Draft leftovers. Did everyone else have the same reaction to this year's Draft as I did? Wasn't it, somehow, just about the strangest Draft we've ever had? I couldn't figure out what was happening for a lot of the time, including some of my own moves. How the hell did Mike Bordick end up on my roster? What was that Patrick Lennon thing all about? Weren't the Mud Hens supposed to like starting pitching? Carlos Garcia for $15 but Mark Whiten for $1? Seitzer for $11 but Curtis not even drafted? And how did the Kings get so many bargain players?
Some of the confusion, I realized, was due to the timing of our Draft relative to Opening Day. It doesn't seem that we've had this big a problem with uncertainty in the past. But there were so many question marks about players making rosters or being disabled that we ended up with no fewer than 18 replacements by the first Sunday. I'm not sure if I would want to move the Draft to the weekend after Opening Day, but it's obvious things would have been very different if we had. How much more would Kevin Mitchell have cost? How about Jason Dickson and Doug Jones? And how would those bids have affected other players' values, given the $260 salary cap, rather than the $320 we're working with post-Draft?
Here are a few of my main observations about some of the specific Draft results:
Best bargains: The entire Kings roster: Raines $1, Lawton $3, O'Leary $3, Will Clark $15 (was $31 last year), Haney $3, Pavlik $5, Drabek $2. Also, Whiten at a buck is crazy; I doubt if anyone's ever been anywhere near that cheap after hitting 22 home runs with a .370 OBP, and not being injured. Buford at $4 is ridiculous for a leadoff hitter. Witt at $1 (16 wins) is a joke, I don't care what his ERA/ratio were. And Tewksbury for $3 (10 W, 1.29 ratio) is a steal also.
Biggest miscalculations: The Cities ending up with Bordick when I could have had Lawton. The Mountain Men paying $15 for Garcia (they had no one else to spend it on by then, but that's the problem). The Skids winding up with $8 left over; strategic planning could have turned Dan Miceli into Rick Aguilera, for example. Patrick Lennon for $5, when McCartney was available for a few shillings. The Mud Hens blowing their wad on Albert Belle right away, and ending up with no strategy whatsoever.
Best pitching staffs. Combining the Draft and Keepers, I think the best pitching staffs in terms of pure stud value to start the season were:
2. Mtn Men. They went for the biggest studs in Johnson and Nagy, and paid accordingly. Wells is okay. Timlin, Taylor, and Benitez are another good troika.
3. Lippers. Hentgen is a good start, plus Burkett and Hershiser, and I like Ogea. Slocumb and Montgomery are suspect closers, but this staff still edges out the Jay Jays.
Best hitting. As for hitters, again focusing on stud value, here's how I ranked ‘em coming out of the Draft:
2. Kings. The Orioles' meat of Palmeiro, Brady Anderson, Alomar, and Ripken, plus Baines, Greer, Clark. Studly.
3. Jay Jays. The all-DH team again: Edgar Martinez, Molitor, Berroa, Carter, plus Fryman, Grissom. Just beats out the Skids' Griffey-led lineup.
Projections. Let me clarify. These are not really "predictions," as in "I can see the future". They are "projections"; this means that I'm looking at the rosters as they came out of the Draft, and saying, if nothing else happened, how would these teams be likely to finish? Predictions would have to take into account my expectations for teams' in-season strategies, and other intangibles. For example, if I were predicting, I'd never put the Skid Rowes 8th, as I have in my projections. This is because we all know that Larry's either going to come close to winning it all, or he's going to dump all his good players and finish last.
That said, here we go. As always, critiques and arguments are more than welcome. Letter bombs are not. Consider a high placement as putting pressure on your team to live up to the ranking. Consider a low placement a challenge to prove me wrong. That's been known to happen.
2. Kings. This is a very impressive team, starting with the Oriole lineup and other studs. The only lineup holes were Colbrunn and Raines, and now Colbrunn's got a full-time job. I especially like the cheap pitching: sure, they could falter, but several of Wakefield, Langston, Haney, Pavlik, et al., could win 10-12 games. The closers were the two best available. Needs: Starting pitchers to achieve their potential. Orioles to win the pennant.
3. Lippers. There is a solid pitching staff and a strong lineup here, with few weaknesses other than the lack of catching. Even the cheap guys like Incaviglia and Easley could pay dividends, and Vaughn, Palmer, Justice, Brosius, etc., are quality. Needs: Montgomery to be healthy, Mo to hit 50 HRs, catching stats to be removed from the standings.
4. Baby Boomers. Probably the best hitting in the league, especially for power, complemented by some strong starting pitching in Cone, Hill, and Appier. With Mesa coming back, they've got some relief pitching now, and Ayala and Bevil might chip in as well. Needs: McGwire to stay healthy all year (or the earth to stop rotating on it axis, which is equally likely); Pat Lennon to make the All Star team; Mesa to find religion.
5. tie: Mountain Men. They're a little top-heavy on starting pitching, especially with the fragile Johnson, but should be high up in all pitching categories again this year. The lineup is young and balanced, although a little too green (pun intended) at catcher. Needs: Oakland's middle infielders to break out; Whiten to find a home; no more injuries to Johnson; Saberhagen to come back.
5. tie: Hammerin' Eggerts. Really hard to distinguish in overall quality from the Mountain Men. The starting pitching is deeper with Fassero, Pettitte, Rosado, Sele, et al., but not as high quality, and there's only Bluma and a prayer in the pen. They have more stud hitters (Knoblauch, Bernie, Buhner) than the MM, but more holes (Matheny, Blowers, Seitzer) as well. Early season returns on Bragg and Alicea are very encouraging. Needs: The part- timers to get heavy playing time, especially Seitzer; Jose Valentin to repeat his ‘96; another closer.
7. Jay Jays. Exceptional hitting complemented by a couple of top-quality starting pitchers, but the one-dimensional character of the team lands them in 7th place. The aging, DH- types (Franco, Martinez, Molitor, Carter) could all go south together, and conversely there's a lot of risk in many of the kid pitchers (Colon, D'Amico, Moehler). Needs: Prieto to become a star, Aguilera to resume his closer role, Guzman to repeat. The DH rule to be retained in all inter-league games.
8. Skids. I know, this is sacrilege, and investors around the country are dropping my newsletter service because of this odd-ball projection. Sure, they've got Ken (5 HR in a week) Griffey, and plenty of other nice hitters in their prime (Ramirez, Delgado, Jefferson, Higginson). But any team that leaves $8 on the table must have done something wrong, and I think it was in the pitching staff. Rivera's untested as a closer, Charlton's on the way out, McDonald's the only starter in the group who's been around more than a year or so. Keep in mind that I made these projections a week and a half ago, so I'm not allowed to notice how well this team has actually done so far. Needs: Phillips to keep it going one more year; the kids (Walker, Damon, Sweeney, Thompson) to arrive; Butch Henry to be as good as he's looked so far.
9. Pets. This is the last year that Thomas will gum up this team's budget, not to mention Mr. Over-rated, Cecil Fielder. Of course, if Sandy Alomar continues to be this year's Henry Rodriguez, then all bets are off. They didn't grab the high-priced pitching they were looking for, and after Navarro and Key, this is a very suspect staff. Needs: A new middle infield (Frye-DNP, Offerman-DL, Gates-DNP); Checo to be The Man.
10. Mud Hens. Somebody has to be picked last each year, and this time it's a little easier because these guys were labeling their own team as a disaster right after the Draft. If the Pets can be bad with Thomas, the Mud Hens can be bad with Belle — and the White Sox can truly suck with the both of them. There's just not enough pitching to complement the fairly potent hitting, and of course, once again there's no bullpen. One of these years that strategy will be abandoned for the failure that it is. Needs: A wave of good health to wash over this team, soon (Ventura, Gonzalez, Velarde, Rivera); Belle to get even more angry, and launch 60; lots of middle relief wins, and even saves.
That's it for this pre-season. See you on-line, or on the sidelines.
Good IV League Home Page Good IV League Archives
Comments? Questions? Choked-up sense of
nostalgia?
Contact me: DNT@DNTownsend.com
Copyright 1997 David N. Townsend